Storm Boris, a fierce weather system, has struck Central and Eastern Europe with unprecedented severity, causing record-breaking rainfall and significant flooding.
The storm has claimed 19 lives so far, inundated entire villages, and led to numerous evacuations across Austria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia.
Despite the chaos unfolding in neighboring regions, Belgium has been spared from the deluge, basking in unusually pleasant weather.
This divergence in weather patterns raises questions about why Belgium is not experiencing the same extreme conditions and how well-prepared the country is for future storms.
Storm Boris: A Record-Breaking Deluge
Since last week, Storm Boris has brought catastrophic rainfall to Central and Eastern Europe.
The storm’s intensity has resulted in a staggering amount of precipitation, with some areas recording up to 500 mm of rain in just 48 hours—more than double the previous record for September.
The torrential downpour has led to severe flooding, dam breaches, and significant damage across the affected regions.
“It’s reasonable to refer to this type of extreme weather as a freak event,” said Wim Thiery, a climate scientist from VUB, in an interview with The Brussels Times.
“Over 400 mm of rain fell in just 48 hours, in some places this figure was as high as 500 mm, and the previous record was broken by more than 100 mm. So, Storm Boris is really pulverizing records.”
Understanding the Meteorological Mechanics
The extreme weather conditions associated with Storm Boris can be attributed to two main factors: the collision of cold and warm air masses and a blocked weather system.
Firstly, Storm Boris is fueled by an intense depression formed when cold air from Northern Europe meets the warmer, humid air from the Mediterranean and Black Sea.
The waters in these regions are 3°C to 5°C warmer than usual, increasing humidity levels. This moisture-laden air travels through atmospheric currents and, upon encountering mountain ranges such as the Alps, rises and condenses, resulting in intense rainfall.
Secondly, the storm’s persistence is due to a blocked weather system created by a winding jet stream. Normally, high- and low-pressure systems shift from west to east.
However, the current low-pressure zone (Storm Boris) is trapped between two high-pressure areas due to the jet stream’s unique pattern. This blockage has led to prolonged periods of heavy rain over the same areas.
Belgium’s Sunlit Respite
While neighboring countries grapple with the aftermath of Storm Boris, Belgium is experiencing unusually sunny weather. The country finds itself on the “right” side of the high-pressure zone, shielded from the storm’s impacts.
This high-pressure area has resulted in clear skies and mild temperatures in Belgium, with cold nights but pleasant daytime weather.
“The high-pressure zone over Belgium is protecting the country from the storm’s effects,” Thiery explained. “We will see the sun shining during the day, but also experience cold nights.”
Preparing for Future Storms
The images of devastation caused by Storm Boris echo the scenes from July 2021 when Belgium and its neighbors faced severe flooding, dubbed the “water bomb.”
That disaster resulted in around 200 deaths and widespread damage. The similarities between the two events are striking, as both storms involved low-pressure systems caught between high-pressure zones, while moisture from surrounding regions contributed to extreme precipitation.
Thiery noted that while weather forecasts can predict such storms with increasing accuracy, preparation remains a critical issue.
In 2021, Belgium’s authorities were alerted in advance but failed to act preemptively to manage water levels effectively.
“We did not pre-emptively open all our dams in advance, which the countries affected by Storm Boris have done to maximize their buffering capacity,” Thiery said.
Limitations of Adaptation and the Role of Climate Change
The increasing frequency and intensity of such extreme weather events highlight the limitations of adaptation strategies alone.
As Thiery pointed out, while weather forecasts can provide early warnings, there is a limit to how much can be done to mitigate the impact of these storms through infrastructural measures alone. The underlying issue is the escalating nature of climate extremes.
“Climate change is significantly increasing the likelihood of intense precipitation events,” Thiery noted. “Storm Boris is believed to have been exacerbated by climate change, as a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to more intense rainfall.”
Recent analyses from the ClimaMeter initiative suggest that climate change has played a role in intensifying Storm Boris.
With global temperatures already 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, the atmosphere’s capacity to hold moisture has increased, leading to more severe downpours. Additionally, marine heatwaves, such as those affecting the Black Sea, contribute to higher moisture levels in the atmosphere, further fueling storms.
The bending of jet streams due to climate change also exacerbates the problem by causing persistent weather patterns. This results in extended periods of extreme weather in affected regions, while areas in high-pressure zones experience prolonged sunshine and drought.
The Path Forward: Mitigation Over Adaptation
Thiery advocates for a shift in focus from adaptation to mitigation. “The solution is to achieve net-zero emissions to stabilize global warming,” he said.
“While it is not possible to reverse the current level of warming, the sooner we address it, the more damage we will be able to avoid.”
The increasing frequency of extreme weather events underscores the urgent need for global action on climate change.
While Belgium’s current weather might offer a reprieve, the broader impacts of climate change will continue to pose challenges across Europe and beyond.
In summary, while Belgium enjoys a sunny break from the devastating effects of Storm Boris, the storm’s record-breaking rainfall and the subsequent flooding in Central and Eastern Europe highlight the urgent need for enhanced preparedness and climate action.
As weather patterns become more extreme, both immediate measures and long-term strategies will be crucial in mitigating the impacts of future storms.
This article was created using automation technology and was thoroughly edited and fact-checked by one of our editorial staff members
