Belgium is confronting an unprecedented wave of unexplained drone sightings over sensitive locations, from military bases to airports and a nuclear power station. The sudden uptick has escalated security worries, disrupted key operations, and sparked suspicions that the country may be the target of a hostile foreign actor.
Reports of mysterious drone activity began surfacing last month, initially near military installations. While drone sightings are not unusual across Europe, authorities quickly noticed a pattern: the flights were occurring near critical infrastructure and at moments of heightened geopolitical tension.
The sightings coincided with troubling developments elsewhere in Europe, where Russian-made drones were intercepted over Poland and unknown aircraft caused temporary shutdowns at airports in Denmark and Germany.
Belgian officials grew increasingly alarmed as the incursions intensified last week, culminating in halted air traffic at the nation’s busiest airport and urgent government consultations.
Federal prosecutors have opened an investigation into 17 distinct incidents. Yet they caution that identifying the source remains complex.
“It is still often difficult to distinguish whether it is a local drone pilot breaking the rules or an attempt at destabilisation by a state actor,” the prosecutors said.
Still, the frequency, sophistication, and strategic targeting have led security specialists to suspect a level of coordination inconsistent with amateur operators. The incidents are unfolding against the backdrop of a high-stakes political debate within the European Union.
The bloc is considering releasing a 140-billion-euro loan to Ukraine funded by interest generated from frozen Russian central bank assets—most of which are held in Belgium. Belgian leaders had previously warned that supporting such a move could draw retaliation from Moscow.
Those warnings now appear prescient. “This is a measure designed to create uncertainty and fear in Belgium—‘don’t you dare touch the assets’. There’s no other way to interpret it,” Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said on Friday. “We can all see that, and the Belgians see it that way too.”
Security experts say drones offer a low-cost, low-risk method for probing a rival’s defences and sowing unease.
Manuel Atug, a German critical infrastructure specialist, explained that targeted overflights are often meant to “unsettle the population and thereby destabilise a country,” adding that they can also serve intelligence-gathering purposes.
The disruption to air traffic alone, he warned, can cause significant economic damage. According to Ulrike Franke, a drone and defence expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, drones have become increasingly difficult to monitor and neutralise.
Their small size, ease of deployment, and ability to be launched from nearly anywhere mean authorities are often left reacting to unknown threats rather than preventing them.
“We currently have more sightings, especially of larger drones and over infrastructure,” she said. “This plays into the hands of those who want to destabilise our countries.”
Belgium’s NATO allies have responded swiftly. Germany and the United Kingdom have sent specialised teams and detection equipment, similar to previous assistance provided to Denmark when it experienced drone incursions earlier this year.
Belgian Defence Minister Theo Francken is now pushing for an initial 50 million euros to boost counter-drone systems, acknowledging that existing capacities are inadequate for the current threat landscape.
For its part, the EU is developing a coordinated drone-defence network for member states, though priority will likely go to eastern border countries facing more direct security threats. Analysts warn that it could take years before such systems are fully operational, leaving Belgium and others vulnerable in the meantime.
Experts emphasize that absolute protection is virtually impossible. However, targeted investment at critical sites—airports, nuclear power stations, energy terminals—could significantly strengthen resilience. “This is not rocket science,” Franke said. “There are key locations where systems should be installed.”
As investigations continue, Belgian officials remain cautious in assigning blame. But the timing, targets, and geopolitical context suggest a deliberate effort to intimidate or destabilise. For a country at the heart of the European Union and NATO, the implications are profound.
Whether the incidents represent a sophisticated intelligence operation, a symbolic warning, or simply opportunistic probing, one thing is clear: Belgium has become the latest flashpoint in Europe’s shifting security landscape, where hybrid threats increasingly blur the line between peace and conflict.
Authorities have vowed to strengthen surveillance and enhance coordination with allies. Yet with many questions still unanswered, the country faces a tense and uncertain period as it grapples with a threat that operates in the shadows—and above its most vulnerable facilities.
