Belgium’s agricultural sector is facing a mixed outlook for 2024, as adverse weather conditions, particularly heavy rainfall, are expected to impact crop yields and overall production value, according to the latest preliminary estimates from the Belgian statistics office, Statbel.
While some areas show resilience, others are bracing for significant declines in output. Overall, the agricultural production value in Belgium is forecast to decrease by 0.7% compared to 2023.
However, this drop is offset by a projected 2.7% reduction in intermediate consumption costs, including raw materials, energy, and outsourced services. As a result, the net added value in the agricultural sector is set to increase by 4.2% in 2024.
One of the hardest-hit areas is the cereal crop sector. Belgium’s cereal production has suffered greatly due to the excessive rainfall, which led to a significant reduction in winter cereal acreage, reaching its lowest levels since 1999.
Yields have also dropped, contributing to a total cereal production volume estimated to be 18.7% lower than in 2023. Consequently, the value of cereal production is expected to plummet by 20.1%, compounded by a 1.7% drop in prices for the 2024-25 season.
The sugar beet industry is similarly facing challenges, with a sharp decline of 23.2% in production value. The adverse weather, combined with fluctuating market conditions, has led to a tough year for many farmers in this sector.
On the other hand, there is a slight silver lining for potato farmers, who are set to experience a modest 1.6% increase in production value compared to the previous year, despite the ongoing weather challenges that have made harvesting more difficult.
Horticulture has seen more positive trends, particularly in vegetable production. The value of vegetable production is projected to rise by 9.3%, driven primarily by increased producer prices. However, fruit production tells a different story, with a sharp 17.1% expected decline.
Apples and pears, in particular, are facing a bleak outlook due to a lack of spring sunshine and hailstorms that have negatively affected harvest prospects.
These challenges are expected to result in a 24.1% drop in fruit production, though prices are predicted to rise by 9.2%, offering some financial relief to producers.
In terms of animal production, the sector is expected to remain stable overall. Positive volume effects in certain areas are expected to offset the negative impact of price drops.
Beef production, for example, is forecast to rise by 3.5%, with producer prices increasing by 4.4%, resulting in an 8.1% overall rise in production value.
Conversely, pork production is expected to see a 3.2% volume increase, but the 9.4% decrease in prices will limit the overall value of the sector.
The dairy sector is poised to maintain stable production levels in 2024, with a strong first half of the year ensuring consistent output.
As a result, the value of dairy production is expected to increase by 5.6%, driven by higher milk prices.
However, the egg production industry faces challenges, with a forecasted 11.0% drop in producer prices leading to a decline in overall production value.
Overall, Belgium’s agricultural sector is navigating a year of mixed fortunes. While some areas such as horticulture and certain animal products show promise, the negative impacts of extreme weather events on crops, particularly cereals and fruit, are significant.
Farmers and industry stakeholders will be closely monitoring the final outcomes of these preliminary forecasts as they brace for the full impact of 2024’s challenges.
