Belgium’s care sector is facing a critical challenge, with projections showing that the country will need 124,000 additional care workers by 2040 to meet the growing demands of an ageing population.
A new study by economist Johan Albrecht, commissioned by the think tank Itinera, warns that the shortage could lead to a crisis in the care industry, leaving some individuals unable to access necessary services.
Currently, Belgium employs approximately 600,000 care workers across various fields, including hospitals, home nursing, and elderly care.
However, with the country’s population rapidly ageing, the demand for care services is expected to increase dramatically.
By 2050, one in ten Belgians will be over 80 years old, creating a strain on the healthcare system that could overwhelm the current workforce.
Albrecht’s study emphasizes that the challenge will not only be demographic but also structural, as more people suffer from multiple chronic conditions, resulting in increasingly complex care needs.
He warns that without the necessary influx of care workers, the system could collapse, leading to a two-tiered society where those who can afford private care will have access, while others are left without support.
“There is a very real risk of a care crisis,” Albrecht told de Tijd. “If we don’t find those extra hands, the quality and accessibility of care will deteriorate, creating health inequalities.”
The study breaks down the projected needs by region: Flanders will require 74,000 additional care workers, Wallonia 42,000, and Brussels 8,300.
These figures are based on current population trends, with particular concern over the decline in the working-age population.
Brussels and Wallonia are expected to experience negative population growth as early as the 2030s and 2040s, further compounding the difficulty of filling care positions.
As Belgium’s working-age population remains stable, Albrecht cautions that the solution cannot rely on attracting workers from abroad.
The broader European trend of a shrinking working-age population means that the pool of available foreign labor will likely decrease over the coming decades.
Additionally, Albrecht questions the potential of technology to alleviate the shortage, arguing that not all technological advancements in healthcare are labor-saving.
While innovations such as advanced imaging can help detect diseases earlier, they can also lead to overdiagnosis and unnecessary treatments, draining time and resources.
To avert this crisis, Albrecht advocates for a comprehensive strategy focused on prevention. This includes policies aimed at reducing the incidence of chronic conditions, such as anti-smoking campaigns, which could help reduce the number of people requiring care.
He also highlights the importance of addressing the social determinants of health, noting that issues such as poor housing can significantly increase healthcare costs.
For example, people living in damp or poorly maintained buildings often face higher medical expenses due to related health problems.
“There is a need to shift from a reactive system to a more preventative one,” said Albrecht, noting that this could free up to 25,000 care workers by reducing the burden on the healthcare system.
With the number of elderly and people with complex medical needs growing, Belgium’s ability to provide adequate care will hinge on its ability to develop and implement strategies that address both the social and medical factors contributing to the demand.
Without swift action, the country faces a future where the provision of care is increasingly privatized, creating a divide between those who can afford care and those who cannot.
