A new analysis by demographer Karel Neels from the University of Antwerp reveals troubling trends in Belgium’s birth rates, suggesting that a significant number of women who delay having children until later in life may never have children at all.
According to Neels’ unpublished research, two-thirds of Belgian women who do not have children by the age of 35 are likely to remain childless.
This finding comes amid a broader demographic shift in Belgium, where the number of births continues to decline.
In 2023, Belgium recorded just 110,198 births, the lowest since 1942, marking the second consecutive year that deaths have outpaced births.
Preliminary data for 2024 indicate an even further drop in the birth rate, pointing to a trend that shows no signs of reversing in the short term.
The primary driver behind the country’s declining birth rate is the trend of women waiting longer to have children. Data spanning the last 15 years shows a significant decrease in the number of women having children in their twenties.
In 2009, 55% of women had at least one child by the time they turned 30. However, by 2022, that figure had fallen sharply to just 35%.
Over the same period, the average age for women having their first child has risen from 28 to 30, with many delaying parenthood due to career considerations, financial challenges, and lifestyle choices.
While women in their thirties have still been able to have children, the likelihood of giving birth for the first time after the age of 30 has plateaued in recent years.
According to Neels, this delay is having a significant impact, as biological and social factors limit a woman’s fertility.
“The likelihood of giving birth after 30 increased until around 2010-2012, but it has since stagnated,” Neels explains. “Now, we see more women in their thirties who are at risk of remaining childless.”
The study estimates that 35 to 40% of women who postpone childbearing until their thirties may never have children. For those who delay until the age of 35, this figure rises to a staggering 65%.
Neels suggests that postponing parenthood often leads to involuntary childlessness, and for those who do eventually have a child, the chances of having more than one or two are slim.
Women who do opt for later motherhood often have their children in quick succession, highlighting the difficulties in balancing multiple births at an advanced age.
The trends in Belgium are part of a broader global phenomenon. Fertility rates are falling across Europe and other developed regions, contributing to concerns about aging populations and potential economic challenges.
While some regions of Belgium, such as Flanders, are projected to see a slight increase in births, the decline is more pronounced in Brussels and Wallonia.
For instance, Flanders recorded 62,338 births in 2023, with numbers expected to rise to 70,000 by 2050. In contrast, Brussels and Wallonia have seen sharper declines, reflecting the urbanization and socio-economic pressures faced by many families.
Belgium’s demographic situation mirrors the broader global trend of falling birth rates. Neels notes that nearly half of the world’s countries are not producing enough children to replace their populations, a situation that is expected to affect three-quarters of nations by 2050, and 97% by the end of the century.
As Belgium and many other countries face a future with fewer births and aging populations, the findings serve as a stark reminder of the complex social and biological factors at play in the decision to start a family.
