Chances of a White Christmas in Belgium Dwindle Amid Climate Change Impact

The odds of a white Christmas in Belgium this year remain slim, with the Royal Meteorological Institute (IRM) predicting a cloudy and damp festive season for most of the country.

Despite faint hope for snow in higher-altitude regions, the chances for a snow-covered Christmas morning in Brussels are virtually nonexistent.

According to IRM meteorologist Pascal Mormal, the likelihood of snow accumulation in the capital is “nil.” However, areas situated above 600 meters, such as the Ardennes, have a 50% chance of seeing snow on Christmas Day.

To qualify officially as a white Christmas, Belgium’s Uccle weather station must record at least 1 centimeter of snow by 8:00 AM on December 25.

A Rare Sight in Belgium

Belgium has not experienced a nationwide white Christmas since 2010, when Uccle recorded a remarkable 16 centimeters of snow. In 2020, snowfall was limited to higher elevations, with around 6 centimeters observed in regions above 600 meters.

Historically, the Ardennes has been the most likely area in Belgium to experience snow during the holiday season, while coastal regions and West Flanders hold only a 5% chance.

This year, light snowfall was already reported in southern parts of the country on December 22 and 23, particularly in areas above 500 meters.

Mormal noted that some snow might linger in spots like Botrange and Mont-Rigi, though temperatures slightly above freezing could hinder accumulation.

The ‘Lost Winter’ Phenomenon

Belgium’s declining snowfall is part of a broader trend linked to climate change. A recent study by Climate Central revealed that the number of days with freezing temperatures has dropped significantly over the past decade.

In Belgium, the annual average of “lost winter days” — defined as days where minimum temperatures exceed zero degrees Celsius — increased by 15 between 2014 and 2023. In Brussels, the figure was slightly higher, averaging 16 lost days per year.

Warmer winters not only reduce the frequency of snow but also impact where and when it falls. As global temperatures rise, snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to decline by 8% for every 1°C increase in surface air temperature.

Additionally, a warming atmosphere holds more moisture, which can lead to rain instead of snow in regions that historically experienced winter precipitation.

A Changing Holiday Landscape

The effects of climate change on Belgium’s winter weather have become increasingly apparent. “Christmases in Belgium are now more likely to be grey and rainy than white,” Mormal explained.

As residents look back on snow-blanketed holidays of the past, the possibility of a white Christmas has become a nostalgic rarity. However, the Ardennes may still offer a wintry escape for those hoping to catch a glimpse of snow this festive season.

While Belgium’s chances of a snowy Christmas dwindle, the broader message underscores the urgent need for climate action to mitigate further disruptions to traditional weather patterns.

 

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